Right now, Vinícius Júnior and the people he has around him are taking stock of Monday’s Ballon d’Or disappointment. Frederico Pena, the Real Madrid star’s agent, applies an extremely analytical mindset to the way he works; he’s at pains to avoid impulse-driven responses. The primary conclusion Pena has reached is that the number of Ballon d’Or votes Vinícius received is very likely to have been adversely affected by the presence of two Madrid team-mates - Jude Bellingham and Dani Carvajal - among the favorites for the award. In particular, it’s felt that votes will have been split between Vinícius and Bellingham.

Vinícius devastated by Ballon d’Or snub

Meanwhile, Vinícius’s advisers are also aware that one of the criteria that Ballon d’Or jurors were told to take into account when casting their ballot was “class and fair play” - how players conduct themselves both on and off the field. In this regard, the Brazilian’s camp believes he has been placed at a disadvantage by the abuse he has to put up with at many stadiums around Spain, and a perceived lack of protection against opposition defenders from referees in LaLiga (in Europe, he feels far better looked after by match officials). Within Vinícius’s camp, it’s felt that this state of affairs inevitably, and understandably, has a negative impact on his behavior.

The two factors outlined above - a split vote between Madrid players and the ‘fair play’ criterion - are thought to be why Vinícius missed out on the Men’s Ballon d’Or, with Manchester City and Spain’s Rodri Hernández scooping the accolade instead. Although Vinícius has remained publicly bullish - posting on social media, “I’ll perform 10x better if necessary. They’re not ready” - privately, the 24-year-old is said to be devastated by missing out on the Ballon d’Or.

Vinícius had been widely tipped to win the France Football award for the first time in his career. Ahead of Monday’s gala in Paris, he had flown around 50 people to Spain in anticipation of celebrations, and had prepared a huge party in Madrid. As part of his Ballon d’Or-victory festivities, he was also set to appear at the opening of a new Nike shop in the center of the Spanish capital. Vinícius believed that the trophy was his.

Does Vinícius’s future lie away from Spain?

But above and beyond Vinícius’s immediate sense of crushing disappointment, his Ballon d’Or near-miss could have longer-term consequences on the forward’s future at Real Madrid. He is starting to lose patience with several things. Firstly - and, as mentioned earlier, this was an influence on what happened on Monday - he feels utterly defenseless when he plays in LaLiga. While he accepts that at times he needs to work harder to ignore fans’ and opponents’ efforts to get at him, he feels Spanish referees are not only failing to protect a star whose playing style justifies soccer’s status as the ‘beautiful game’, but even end up punishing him when he complains about treatment he’s receiving. Moreover, fans’ abuse not infrequently crosses a line, descending into racist slurs - most notably, away at Valencia and in several Spanish-capital derbies against Atlético Madrid. The racism Vinícius has suffered in Spain has taken a heavy toll on him.

And Madrid’s growing constellation of stars could likewise impact Vinícius’ long-term career strategy. Last season, Vinícius saw Bellingham take the limelight away from him in the first half of the campaign, before the Brazilian came back to the fore in the run-in. This term, Madrid have signed Kylian Mbappé, another megastar with whom he must now share top billing (not only in sporting terms, but also from a marketing standpoint). At the Bernabéu, such stiff competition for the spotlight could hinder Vinícius’s chances of going one better in the Ballon d’Or next year, even if Madrid win all seven trophies in play this season.

Could Vinícius be tempted to Saudi soccer, Premier League?

When it comes to Vinícius’s relationship with both Real Madrid and Spanish soccer as a whole, each of the above ingredients combines to create a highly dangerous cocktail. In 2023, his agent negotiated a short-term extension to his Madrid contract, extending his deal only until 2027. That was no coincidence. Pena wanted Vinícius to remain in firm control of his destiny. As things stand, he’s the most potent, penetrative attacker in the world, more so even than Mbappé, and is on the transfer wish list of every European giant that can afford him (chiefly the Premier League’s most powerful clubs, and Paris Saint-Germain).

What’s more, Vinícius is also a target for Saudi Arabian soccer; as this newspaper reported, he was the subject of an eye-watering bid from the Saudi Pro League last summer. It was an offer that Madrid’s president, Florentino Pérez, refused to countenance, but the player himself took a different attitude to the approach. Were he to go to Saudi Arabia, he could sign the biggest contract in the history of men’s soccer. So, despite his commitment to enjoying further success at Madrid, Vinícius was interested in learning more about the Saudi offer, and his agents even discussed the potential for such a switch further down the line.

Events such as Monday’s Ballon d’Or disappointment are the kinds of factors that could contribute to taking Vinícius down that path, or pushing him towards a league such as the English top flight.