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American League MVP:Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

  • Baseball Mood 2024/11/22 00:11
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Aaron Judge
American League MVP
New York Yankees

Pictured:
A large cutout of Judge wearing a pinstripe Yankees jersey and a dark blue batting helmet, with three smaller cutouts of Judge in various stages of his swing framed inside of it.

Finally tally: Aaron Judge 420 (all 30 first-place votes), Bobby Witt Jr., Royals 270, Juan Soto, Yankees 229, Gunnar Henderson, Orioles 208, José Ramírez, Guardians 184, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays 99, Tarik Skubal, Tigers 93, Jarren Duran, Red Sox 90, Yordan Alvarez, Astros 75, Brent Rooker, A's 40, Emmanuel Clase, Guardians 36, Cal Raleigh, Mariners 12, Rafael Devers, Red Sox 5, Anthony Santander, Orioles 4, Jose Altuve, Astros 1, Tyler Holton, Tigers 1, Seth Lugo, Royals 1, Corey Seager, Rangers 1, Framber Valdez, Astros 1.


Doolittle's take: It simply could have been no other way. Perhaps the best way to frame just how off the scale Judge's 2024 season was is to put the season enjoyed by the runner-up in the balloting -- Witt -- into historical context. Witt's 9.4 bWAR is tied for the 60th-best total among hitters during the 124-year history of the American League. And yet not only did Judge win every first place vote, there really wasn't a cogent argument for any other outcome.


Judge's 10.8 bWAR lands at No. 13 on that same list. The only players ahead of him are Babe Ruth, Carl Yastrzemski, Lou Gehrig, Cal Ripken Jr., Ty Cobb and Mickey Mantle. It just doesn't get any more exclusive than that.


Judge's raw totals are staggering enough -- .322/.458/.701 with 58 homers, 144 RBI and 122 runs. That stat line is off the scale no matter what the league context is, but what we have to keep in mind is that this season was a depressed offensive environment, one in which the AL's collective .240 batting average was tied for the fifth-lowest in history. And the other seasons ahead of it were all in the pre-DH era. Once you adjust for league context, you realize that Judge just put up one of the 10 best offensive seasons in the history of the Junior Circuit, and now owns two of the top 20, along with his other MVP season in 2022.


As the years progress, I'd expect there to be increasing chatter about including the postseason in consideration for the voting. As the playoff field expands and teams build with that entire month of play in mind, it seems more and more difficult to put it aside. As much as Judge struggled in October, I don't think that would have changed the balloting, except maybe he wouldn't have been a unanimous pick.


It's somewhat debatable though. While the Royals showed well in the playoffs, Witt didn't have a huge output during that run, so he didn't close the gap. On the other hand, Soto led all hitters in playoff WPA and that would have bolstered his case, especially since he cracked that unforgettable pennant-winning homer in Cleveland. But I still think Judge would have won.


This was a truly epic season in terms of elite performances for AL hitters, a group who distanced themselves from a population of hitters who collectively struggled by historical standards. Rather than being dragged down by the context, this only enhances the campaign Judge enjoyed. In a season with a number of worthy MVP picks, Judge stood above them all, and it wasn't really close.


Here's how my AXE leaderboard had it:


1. Aaron Judge, Yankees (170 AXE, winner)

2. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals (162, finalist)

3. Juan Soto, Yankees (153, finalist)

4. Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (150)

5. Jarren Duran, Red Sox (144)

6. Jose Ramirez, Guardians (140)

7. (tie) Yordan Alvarez, Astros (133)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (133)

9. Brent Rooker, Athletics (131)

10. Corey Seager, Rangers (129)


Note: AXE is an index that creates a consensus rating from the leading value metrics (WAR, from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference) and contextual metrics (win probability added and championship probability added, both from Baseball Reference), with 100 represent the MLB average.


MVP must-reads:


Aaron Judge is the fastest ever to 300 home runs -- but how many more will he hit?


Better than Bonds in 2001 and Ruth in 1921? How Aaron Judge's season stacks up to the best in MLB history


Only Juan Soto can decide if his future is with the Yankees


Baseball's next superstar? Bobby Witt Jr.'s rise to MLB's top tier

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