Real Madrid head into El Clásico unsure of how they should feel about their prospects, having showed the very best and worst of themselves in their thrilling Champions League win over Borussia Dortmund.

Which Real Madrid will we see in El Clásico?

Against Barcelona, Madrid know they’re in for a torrid night if they play like they did in the first half against Dortmund. In Saturday evening’s clash, after all, Los Blancos are up against a side that has an almost perfect record in LaLiga - nine wins out of ten - and has just thumped German giants Bayern Munich 4-1 in Europe.

However, if Madrid perform as they did in the second half on Tuesday, when Carlo Ancelotti’s men scored five goals without reply to win 5-2, El Clásico will be a different story altogether. And they are favored by home advantage this weekend, not to mention recent history: the Spanish and European champions have beaten Barça in the arch rivals’ last four meetings.

Three of those victories came last season, and each was different to the others. At Montjuïc last October, Jude Bellingham popped up with a brace to turn around a game that had looked set fair for a Barça victory; at the Bernabéu in April, the teams exchanged blows before Madrid proved they packed the greater punch, thanks chiefly to an inspired Lucas Vázquez; and in the Super Cup final in Riyadh, Los Merengues swept to a 4-1 triumph whose scoreline tells you everything you need to know about how the game unfolded.

With only ten minutes on the clock in the Saudi capital, a dominant Madrid were 2-0 up on a team then coached by Xavi, after a pair of goals with one common denominator: the pace of Los Merengues’ attackers tore the Blaugrana’s high defensive line to shreds. For the opener, Bellingham played Vinícius in behind a Barça backline positioned some 45 yards from Iñaki Peña’s goal. And for the second, Dani Carvajal’s through ball released Rodrygo Goes into space, with the defence even further up field, allowing him to set up Vinícius for a tap-in.

Now, against a Barça side under the stewardship of Hansi Flick, Ancelotti is expected to forge a game plan that draws on that thumping win, as Madrid attempt to draw level on points with LaLiga’s early-season leaders.

Madrid‘s game plan against Barça: beat Flick’s high line

Under Flick, Barça have been characterized by an eagerness to press high and hold a high defensive line, squeezing their 10 outfield players into a small strip of pitch that’s almost always in the opposition half. And while that carries with it certain benefits, there are also pitfalls. This was illustrated by the last two goals that Barça have conceded: against Bayern, a long, raking ball by Kim Min Jae, taking advantage of the Catalans’ position some 55 yards from goal, led to a strike by Harry Kane; and against Sevilla, one pass from the edge of the Andalusians’ area was enough to take out the hosts’ defence, which was stationed on the halfway line, and leave Stanis Idumbo through on goal. Minutes earlier, moreover, Sevilla had already made the most of a similar situation for Dodi Lukebakio to score, only for the strike to be ruled out for offside.

Capitalizing on this high line looks like being integral to Ancelotti’s Clásico plan. Harnessing the speed and finishing ability of Vinícius and summer signing Kylian Mbappé, the Madrid coach will look to punish Flick for his ambitious approach. It’s one the German has said Barça will always stick to, albeit he has not ruled out tweaks, conceding that “every game is different”. Flick’s confidence in his tactics is understandable, as his players are applying them to perfection. Across Europe’s five major leagues, Barça have caught more players offside than any other team this season: 65, almost twice as many as the second-placed side in that ranking, Premier League club Brighton, who have managed it on 34 occasions. Madrid have deployed the offside trap to success 14 times in LaLiga. It’s a similar story in the Champions League, where Barça’s defence leads the offsides count with 16, compared to Madrid’s six.

Will Modric start for Madrid in El Clásico?

It‘s likely that Flick will have to make some tactical adjustments to prevent Madrid’s forwards from running amok as they did in the second half against Dortmund. That said, Los Blancos’ prospects of victory don’t only come down to the speedy frontmen: they also need the right service, which is why Luka Modric appears well placed to keep his spot in the hosts’ line-up, sharing the engine room with Jude Bellingham and Fede Valverde. Eduardo Camavinga and Aurélien Tchouaméni are expected to compete for the final midfield berth. If Ancelotti plumps for Camavinga in the middle, he could then drop Tchouaméni back into central defence, allowing Éder Militão to shift to full-back to focus on Raphinha, a player in a white-hot vein of form. That, though, is only an outside possibility; Vázquez is in pole position to start on the right.