There's a whole lot of history pointing to the fact that the Red Bulls aren't a serious threat to win MLS Cup this year. They're one of the only three founding MLS teams to have never won it. They also haven't won a playoff game since 2018. That they've made the playoffs for 15-straight seasons in MLS is more of an indictment of the league's everybody-gets-a-trophy postseason format -- 62% of teams qualified for the playoffs this year! -- than of RBNY's continued excellence.

The present tells us we should be concerned about the Red Bulls' attack letting them down. According to FBref, they finished the regular season in the bottom half of the league in non-penalty xG per shot (0.10) and passes into the box per 90 (8.0) and outside the top third of the league in both goals and non-penalty xG.

It's up to the defense to carry this team.