In recent years, the typical winning pattern of the North London Derby has shifted.

For years Tottenham and Arsenal would generally go tit for tat - Spurs win at home, Arsenal win away. The formula was set to rinse and repeat, with a raucous home crowd clearly having a say on fierce battles between two top teams.

But that changed in 2023. Spurs have lost each of the last two derbies hosted at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, while a point earned at The Emirates ended Arsenal’s run of home wins too. The pattern is broken, but it’s the Lilywhites who have come off worse: They’re without a victory over Arsenal in four attempts, with attempt number five looming large this weekend.

On paper, at least, it’s a fantastic time for Tottenham to play Arsenal. Downtrodden, historically scarred Spurs fans aren’t so sure about that, but it really is.

The Gunners will be without what some might argue is their entire first-choice midfield, plus they’re managing an injury concern that affects the front line too. Mikel Arteta’s stomach likely dropped at the sight of Martin Odegaard limping off the pitch for Norway this week; he seems certain to join Declan Rice (suspended) and Mikel Merino (injured) in the stands.

Panicked Arsenal fans are now mocking up their midfield selections for the weekend absent of those names and feeling a sense of dread creep in. At no point last season, in any of the 52 games they played, did they go without Rice and Odegaard. In fact, between them they barely missed a match at all; the strongest team they faced without either was Newcastle United.

That script will change on Sunday, as Arteta searches for a workable midfield setup without both. Now is the time to prove he warrants that new contract. Will it be Jorginho, Thomas Partey and Kai Havertz? With Gabriel Jesus an injury concern, perhaps it’s not even possible to drop Havertz back into midfield. Perhaps he will, and Leandro Trossard will play as the No. 9; or perhaps he won’t, and Arteta will field Oleksandr Zinchenko in midfield - or even push Jurrien Timber or Riccardo Calafiori in there.

Whichever alignment Arteta opts for, there’s no doubt it’ll represent a severely weakened Arsenal, and therefore a golden opportunity for Spurs to turn the screw, as it plays directly into their hands.

Early season statistics from small sample sizes must be treated with fair caution, but it’s notable that Spurs have been very proactive off the ball so far. They’ve averaged the joint-most completed tackles (45) in the Premier League so far, attempted the most tackles in the middle third of the pitch (33) and attempted the third-most in the attacking third (13).