Real Madrid could be in serious danger of not qualifying for the knockout stages of the 2024/25 Champions League after Wednesday’s 2-0 defeat to Premier League leaders Liverpool at Anfield.

After five games, the LaLiga giants have only six points, which leaves them 24th out of 36 in the standings, the last position that would see them advance to the knockout phase playoff as an unseeded team.

Given Madrid’s standing in the competition, the objective before it began was clearly to finish in the top eight, thus qualifying for the round of 16 without the need for a playoff. They could still achieve that goal, although they have almost no margin for error in their final three fixtures and will be dependent on other results.

Who will Real Madrid play in their last three Champions League games?

Should they win their remaining games against Atalanta (away), Salzburg (home) and Brest (away), they would finish on 15 points, giving them a 73% chance of finishing in the top eight, according to calculations carried out by analytics company Opta before the tournament began.

But how likely are they to collect maximum points? Carlo Ancelotti’s side have lost all three of their away fixtures and are on the road for two of the last three. Atalanta, their next opponents on December 10, are unbeaten in the Champions League, scoring 11 times and conceding just once, and flying high in second place in Serie A.

To make matters worse, key attacker Vinicius Jr isn’t expected to return to fitness until the following week, while Eder Militão and Dani Carvajal are long-term injury victims. However, Aurélien Tchouaméni and Rodrygo are likely to have recovered to play in the final league phase contests.

French club Brest, their last opponents on January 29, have been the competition’s surprise package this season and Real Madrid have already suffered an unexpected defeat in France, beaten by Lille on matchday 2.

The probability of Real Madrid qualifying for the Champions League round of 16

According to those Opta stats, a minimum of nine points is required to have a 69% probability of finishing in the top 24, with those ranked 9th to 24th featuring in the knockout phase playoff. You would expect Los Blancos to hit that mark by defeating Salzburg at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu on January 22, although 10 or 11 points would, obviously, give them a better chance of avoiding a shock exit (99% and 100% probability respectively).

However, dropping any points at all could rule them out of the running for automatically qualification for the last 16. Two wins and a draw in their final three fixtures would see them finish on 13 points, which Opta believe would give them only a 2% of finishing in the top eight.

A playoff to reach the round of 16 looks most likely, which could see them face Celtic, Dinamo Zagreb or Feyenoord, but also Bayern Munich, Manchester City or Juventus.